Saturday, May 22, 2010

Champions League Final

The Santiago Bernabeu, home pitch of Real Madrid, will play host to the Champions League final between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich. Not only are both clubs looking to etch their names in European football, but with both already having won their domestic league and main cup competition, both are also gunning for a historic treble of trophies. This match is full of unique storylines. Here are just a few...
The battle between managers. Much has been made over the years of the success of Jose Mourinho, the Portuguese Manager of Inter Milan. Mourinho, whose pedigree includes a prior European triumph with Porto as well as Carling Cup and League titles from his time with Chelsea, will be going up against Louis van Gaal. Van Gaal was the manager at Barcelona and Mourinho was his interpreter. Mourinho loves to play mind games, however I do not think any mind games will work with van Gaal as he has known Mourinho since he was "young and modest".
I also find it amusing how two Real Madrid castoffs from the summer, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben, are now the focal points of their new clubs. The pair of Dutch internationals were deemed a surplus at the Bernabeu after $250,000,000 of summer spending brought in the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka, Xabi Alonso and Karim Benzema.
Sneijder has blossomed in his role of playmaker in the Inter midfield. Flanked by Goran Pandev and Samuel Eto'o with Diego Milito leading the line, Sneijder is the one pulling the strings of Inter's attacking game. In their 4-2-3-1 formation, it is imperative that Inter hold the ball up in order to allow their fullbacks, specifically Maicon, the chance to join the play and provide width in attack.
On the other side of the ball, Bayern elect to play a traditional 4-4-2. Robben and Franck Ribery are the ones tasked with providing the width on the wings, but with Ribery out due to his red card in the semi-final stage against Bordeaux, even more pressure will be on Robben to not only terrorize the aging Inter back line, but maybe even chip in with a goal. The wild card for Bayern has to be Ivica Olic, the sporadic striker. Olic can be dreadful one day then phenomenal the next.
I anticipate this match being fairly open. Both sides have great attacking players who will want to get on the score sheet of a Champions League Final. I give the edge to Inter, who I think are just too strong all over the pitch for Bayern Munich. The absence of Ribery to this German side is too much to overcome. It is a beautiful Saturday morning in Orem, UT and the sun is making me giddy as I predict a surprising (in terms of the amount of goals scored in the match) 3-1 scoring line in favour of the Italian Champions.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

NBA Conference Finals Predictions

With the Conference Finals set and about to begin, it is time for me to go out on a limb again (just as I did in predicting the Boston Celtics would beat the Cleveland Cavaliers) and determine which two teams will represent their respective conferences in the NBA Finals. Here it is...
I will start in the east where the Orlando Magic play the Boston Celtics. The Magic, winners of eight straight playoff games and 27 of 30 overall, have been unstoppable to this point. Led by Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard, the magic easily handled the Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks in the opening two rounds. This Boston team, however, is a totally different beast, especially now that they are the healthiest they have been since winning it all in 2008. I believe the keys to this series will be the battle between point guards (Nelson vs. Rajon Rondo), the power forwards (Rashard Lewis vs. Kevin Garnett) and the benches. Last year these two teams played each other in the Conference Semi-finals with Orlando winning in 7 games. However, that series was lacking Nelson and Garnett, respectively.
Orlando is the younger, more athletic team without question. Rajon Rondo, the emerging leader of this Celtics team, will have to dictate the tempo for Boston to have a chance. Rondo has averaged 18 points, 11 assists and 6 rebounds thus far in the playoffs and it will be on him to get others, specifically the "Big 3" of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, involved early and often. Nelson is definitely the stronger of the two point guards and it will be his job to keep Rondo out of the paint.
The power forward match-up intrigues me because I think Rashard Lewis and Antawn Jamison are very similar players. If you missed the Boston vs. Cleveland series I will inform you now that Garnett had no problem making Jamison look like a D-Leaguer on his way to avergaing 18 points and 8 boards during the series. That being said, Orlando has a much better system for a guy like Lewis to be successful as opposed to the "LeBron + 4" system implemented by Cavaliers coach, Mike "I cannot believe I am not fired yet" Brown. Lewis, never known for his defensive prowess, will have to find a way to be successful at both ends of the court in order to take pressure off Defensive Player of the Year, Dwight Howard.
The bench is where I believe Orlando has the biggest edge, an edge which will ultimately determine the series. The Magic boast a solid point guard in Jason Williams, two all out shooting machines in Mickael Pietrus (who is also a stellar defender) and J.J. Reddick and a couple of solid, but not flashy, front court players in Marcin Gortat and Brian Anderson. This Magic bench is consistent and plays their roles extremely effective. The Celtics, on the other hand, receive sporadic performances from a cast that includes Glen "Big Baby" Davis (who will ALWAYS be Big Baby), Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen and Michael Finley.
Both teams have peaked at exactly the right time. Orlando's best is better than Boston's, but not by much. Magic in 7.
Out west it is the defending NBA Champion, Los Angeles Lakers, against the surprising, Phoenix Suns. Both teams are coming off sweeps from their semi-final match-ups over the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs, respectively. Both teams have clear advantages. The Lakers have the best player in the series in Kobe Bryant and the best front court in the form of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom. The Suns have the best point guard, Steve Nash, and the better bench which includes Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley and Channing Frye.
Bryant will be faced with something he has yet to see so far in these playoffs, a veteran defender. After going up against Thabo Sefolosha and Wesley Matthews in the first two rounds, Grant Hill will now get the task of trying to contain the Lakers star. I would not be surprised to see Phoenix also throw Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley in the mix in an attempt to try and prevent Bryant from getting too comfortable with a certain defender. All three of these players are upgrades over Sefolosha and Matthews and Bryant knows he will be facing his biggest test to this point. Bryant will get his 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, but how he will get those numbers will be the key. Phoenix do not want him getting to the free throw line.
The front court of the Lakers can be their greatest strength, but can also be vulnerable depending on the health of Andrew Bynum and if Lamar Odom decides to make an appearance in these playoffs or not. Bynum says his knee problems are getting worse. Odom needs to step up. Odom will probably be fortunate enough to guard Amare Stoudemire while trying to work his way out of his current slump. The mettle of this Lakers front court will be tested, no doubt.
Steve Nash, yes he who hails from the great country to the north, will look to take advantage of his match-up against Derek Fisher. Nash should have no problem penetrating off the dribble and finding his shot when he likes. He also knows how important it is to get Jason Richardson involved (Phoenix is 5-0 this post season when Richardson scores 20 or more) and Stoudemire easy shots of their pick and roll. Nash, as always, will be the key to the Suns success and is a real worry to Lakers coach, Phil Jackson. Fisher, I believe, will be originally assigned the task of guarding Nash, but I am sure Ron Artest, Shannon Brown and even Bryant may also get their chance to stay in front of the Canadian.
The bench will be important in this series, but not as important as the Orlando vs. Boston series. Phil Jackson knows his bench is his biggest liability and will probably shorten it even more for this series. I would be shocked if anyone other than Odom and Shannon Brown played more than 12 minutes/game (assuming Bynum stays healthy). Phoenix loves the energy their bench provides, especially at home. Throughout these playoffs the Phoenix bench has been shown a lot of trust from coach Alvin Gentry. I look for Gentry to continuing giving extended minutes to Dragic, Dudley and Frye while also playing Leandro Barbosa, Louis Amundson and Jarron Collins.
Both teams are well rested. This will be a fascinating series and one that will show the value of home court advantage. Kobe Bryant will not allow the Lakers to lose a game 7 on their home floor. Lakers in 7.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Things I Think From Last Night's (May 3) Sports

Yesterday I had the privilege to watch two great hockey games and two great basketball games. I love playoff sports more than anything and yesterday proved my point. Here is what I gathered from last night...
The Boston Bruins will play in the Eastern Conference finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have done what they are supposed to in taking both games at home. A split in Philadelphia means they only have to win one of their last three games, with two of those games being played in TD Garden. As a side note, it amazes me at how well the Bruins scout goaltenders. In 2004 Andrew Raycroft won the Calder Trophy as the league's top rookie. He was then swiftly dealt to the Toronto Maple Leafs for the right to 21st overall pick of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, Tuukka Rask. The B's then turned to minor league journeyman Tim Thomas for the next 4 seasons who ended up winning the Vezina Trophy as the league's top goalie in 2009. During the second half of the 2009-10 NHL season, Rask supplanted Thomas as the Bruins #1 and has not looked back since. Rask, a native of Finland who just turned 23, has been in fine form with a GAA south of 2. As for Thomas, I do not know of any goalie who has won the Vezina one season, then been relegated to backup the next, but I believe it speaks loads of the abilities and maturity of Rask. As for Raycroft, the man who started this merry-go-round of goaltender's in Boston, he can be seen at the end of the bench in Vancouver backing up Bobby Louuuuuu (Roberto Luongo).
Shifting to the Western Conference and the Chicago Blackhawks v Vancouver Canucks series. At the beginning of the playoffs I honestly thought Chicago were destined to represent the west in the Stanley Cup finals despite their goaltending situation. Nashville then proceeded to give them all they could handle in the first round and Vancouver looks to finish the job the Predators could not do. After splitting the first two games in Chicago, the series heads north to Vancouver and a rowdy GM Place. Vancouver had the best home record of any team in the Western Conference during the regular season at 30-8-3 and will look to grab both games at home to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I think they will do it. The Blackhawks goaltending has been in question all year with Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet and many, like myself, assumed they could just win the majority of games in the 5-4 range. That being said, I do not see Chicago scoring 5 goals against the aforementioned Roberto Luongo, especially in his own backyard. I think Vancouver has progressed substantially from the team that lost at the same stage of the playoffs to the same Blackhawk foe last season. Revenge is on the Canucks mind and I look for them to take the series in 6 games.
Switching now to the NBA. I'll start in the Eastern Conference where the #1 seeded Cleveland Cavaliers got toyed with by the veteran Boston Celtics on their way to a disastrous 104-86 home loss. Cleveland is in trouble. They are very lucky to be leaving their home court with a 1-1 split on their way to Boston. LeBron James, the 2-time NBA MVP, is not himself. I have heard different sport personalities argue whether it's his ailing elbow or not, but to me, it was is emotions, or lack thereof, on the court. His emotions are not there. Could it be because of the elbow? I do not know, but I do know we have not seen his big grin and dance moves for two games. Many teams are intimidated by the Cavs, but Boston is not one of them. The Cavaliers are getting nothing from their bench and nothing from Mo Williams or Antawn Jamison. They are resorting back to the Cleveland who got eliminated by the Orlando Magic last year by hoping LeBron just goes for 40-10-10 every night while the rest of the team watches. Meanwhile, Rajon Rondo cannot be stopped. Cleveland has no answer for Rondo, the unquestioned MVP of the Boston Celtics. Yes Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen get most of the attention, but it is Rondo who orcastrates this fine, aging machine known as the Celtics. After going for 13 points and 19 assists last night as an encore to his 27 and 12 performance from game 1, I would not be surprised to see him average 15 and 15 for the series. Add that to the clutchness (yes, I just made up that word) that is Pierce, the intensity of Garnett and the shooting of Allen and a stunning cameo off the bench in the form of Rasheed Wallace, who awoke yesterday from his year long coma in Boston to produce 17 points in 18 minutes. That alone outscored the entire Cleveland bench who mustered up a measly 13 points. If Boston can get productivity from their bench and Rondo continues to have his way I think Boston will beat Cleveland.
Now to the Phoenix Suns v San Antonio Spurs series. I have a tough time not letting my personal feelings interfere as I love the Suns (STEVE NASH!!!) and dislike the Spurs. The Suns won an entertaining game 1 in Phoenix, but there are a few things that worry me. First, San Antonio is just starting to play their best basketball of the season. Second, Tony Parker is back and will no doubt be inserted into the Spurs starting lineup from here on out. Third, the Suns are in big trouble if Amare Stoudemire ever gets in foul trouble. That being said, the Suns are also playing great basketball at the moment. Jason Richardson has been stellar, Nash and Amare have been doing their thing and Grant Hill continues to just play solid, fundamental basketball. I see this series going 7 games. Yes the Spurs have owned the Suns in the playoffs in years past, like ALL the years past, I think this is the year the Suns will advance. I do not know if I would be saying that if Manu Ginobili was 100%, but he is not and there is just something about this Suns team and how they keep surpassing expectations this year. Suns in 7.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Three NBA Elimination Games Tonight

With all three remaining first round series being possibly decided tonight, I figured I should weigh in on the match-ups and predict their outcomes. At the risk of looking really good or really bad, here goes nothing...
Let's start out east with the Milwaukee Bucks hosting the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks take a 3-2 series lead back to the Bradley Center in an attempt to knock of the disappointing Hawks. The Bucks went on a late 14-0 fourth quarter run to take game 5 in Atlanta. This series, which I thought would be very boring to watch, has actually been fascinating. On one hand you have the improbable "Fear the Deer" gang from Milwaukee led by rookie phenom, Brandon Jennings. Jennings, never short of confidence, has been spectacular throughout and plays with the poise of a veteran. Speaking of veterans, Jerry Stackhouse and Kurt Thomas?! Add to the mix the gritty play of Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova as well as the secondary scoring of John Salmons and the Bucks have been more than formidable. That being said, I cannot see them eliminating the Hawks tonight. Call me stupid, but I struggle to get past the fact that Atlanta is the more talented team, the deeper team, the higher seeded team. I know Atlanta has a sub .500 regular season road record and has lost both games in Milwaukee this post-season, but I just do not see Joe Johnson and Al Horford, two All-stars, going down easily. I think they will bring it tonight and force a deciding game 7 back in the ATL.
Heading west and to game 6 in Oklahoma City for the game between the Thunder and defending NBA Champion, Los Angeles Lakers. Coming off his 13 point performance, Kobe Bryant stated it was one of his best games in the series. I fully agree with him. I actually would like to take it one step further and say it was his best. People talk about how Dwight Howard controls games with his defense and Kobe to me was no different in game 5. Kobe requesting to guard the speedy Russell Westbrook, who was absolutely annihilating Derek Fisher, was and is the turning point in the series. As Kobe focuses on his defending of Westbrook, which has disrupted the flow of the Oklahoma City offense, it has also allowed him to become more of a facilitator on offense and really get his bigs (Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum) more involved. Oklahoma City has no match for the height and skill of the LA front court. Game 5 was a blowout in LA and I see game 6 being a little closer due to it being played in Oklahoma, but I still see the Lakers ending it tonight because that is what champions do. The veteran Lakers need the rest and do not want to play another game. Kobe will make sure it happens.
The late game on tap for Friday will be in Salt Lake City, Utah where the Jazz try and close out the Denver Nuggets in six games. The Nuggets will be without starting center Nene', who is out with a knee injury. Towards the end of last game I could not help but notice how Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin were also hobbling along. This is bad news for a Denver front court already struggling to cope with Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap and the surprising Kyrylo Fesenko ("Fes" from here on out on this blog). Not to mention Deron Williams...I am in awe of Deron Williams. He is the best point guard in the NBA. He is the first person in NBA history to have five straight 25 point, 10 assist games. He is big, he is quick, he is one of the most entertaining players in the NBA. Anyways, this series ends tonight. It has to. The Denver players are bickering more than ever without George Karl there babysitting them. Utah has one of the biggest home court advantages in the NBA and you can be assured the place will be rocking on a Friday night elimination game. Jazz win by 15.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Alexander Not So Great...

Throughout the first round series between the President's Trophy (highest regular season point total) winning Washington Capitals and the eighth seed Montreal Canadiens one thing really stuck out to me in respect to Alexander Ovechkin; he is NOT the best player in the world. Personally, I do not know how anyone can argue he is.
What makes great players great? A question for the ages which always boils down to one thing: Championships. Mr. Ovechkin has not won anything in the NHL other than personal, regular season awards. This past February he had a chance to lead the talented Russian national team to Olympic glory, but that ship crashed and burned before even leaving the boat yard, but that is for another day.
So let me get this straight... The best team in the league, with the supposed best player, headed home for game 5 with a 3-1 series lead in a best of 7 and five days later they are out of the play offs?! Whaaat?!?!
Capitals fans will point to the fact that Jaroslav Halak, the Canadiens goaltender, stood on his head for the final three games of the series. Halak is a professional goaltender and is in the rubber stopping business. He did his job. Quit pointing the finger and look at your main man, Ovechkin.
When teams are up against it and they need something special to turn their fortunes around, they turn to their leader. Alexander Ovechkin is the unquestioned leader of the Washington Capitals. I do not care if Halak was guarding a goal 1' by 1' you find a way to beat him because that is your job as the leader of your team. You do the impossible and rally your teammates around you. That is why you are the highest paid player in the NHL. If your shot is not finding its way to the back of the net through your finesse, then you get dirty and scrum it up in the corners and in front of the net and do absolutely everything you can to make a difference. Ovechkin did not do this. He floated most of the time, waiting for others to get him the puck in his preferred spots and then got his shots blocked because the Canadiens are smarter than a bunch of 10 year olds playing hockey and they knew what was up. The Capitals, despite their 134 shots over the final 3 games played just how Montreal wanted them to.
A powerplay spearheaded by Ovechkin went 1 for 33 in the series. The highest scoring team in the Eastern conference was predictable offensively, hence the high number of blocked shots for the Canadiens. The Capitals all began to play like their Captain and failed to move the puck east to west and became very predictable and individualistic.
The fact is the Capitals had 3 chances to finish the pesky Canadiens, twice in the own arena, and failed to do so. They scored 3 goals in the final 3 games. Ovechkin was MIA. His record now stands at 1-3 in the deciding game 7. Great players play great under pressure and a win percentage of 25% in such crucial games is not going to cut it.
Before people start anointing him the next Great One and face of the NHL, it is high time Ovechkin won some trophies that matter. I am not talking about the individual scoring trophies from the regular season, which he has a nice collection brewing, but rather I am talking about Stanley Cups and Olympic medals. Greatness is defined by championships. Just ask Wayne Gretzky and Steve Yzerman. Or Joe Thornton...

Video Replay in Soccer is now a MUST

I woke up this morning anticipating a great Champions League semi final between two outstanding teams. Barcelona, the champions of Spain and current holder's of Europe's elite competition against Inter Milan, the Italian champions.
After a historic 3-1 result for the Nerazzurri at their Stadio Giuseppe Meazza just one week ago, the stage was set for a scintillating 2nd leg at Barcelona's Camp Nou. In the press conference's leading up to the match, Thiago Motta, a former Barcelona player now plying his trade in the Inter midfield, called for the referee to be strong and not give in the the play antics he anticipated the Spanish team would indulge in knowing they have to win by two goals to advance.
The match started with Barcelona dominating possession. However, the alarming thing to me was the rate at which players on both sides would go down in an attempt to con the referee into awarding a free kick or a card to the opposing team. This is a huge problem in soccer. I am a firm believer that more people would watch soccer if it were not for the diving. The things these players can do with a ball at their feet is simply irresistible. Even for me though, the skill was not enough to keep me watching past 42 minutes.
Thiago Motta, he of the request to ask the referee to be strong, was sent off after 30 minutes for an innocent hand to the neck of Sergio Busquets, who made the most of it. With Busquets chasing him from behind, it should not have even been a yellow card with the amount of contact made. I have been playfully punched harder by my 18 month old nephew than what Busquets was hit by Motta. I thought Busquets had been shot by an Inter supporter the way he went down. I was surprised someone had been able to sneak a gun in to such a high profile event. After seeing the replay I realized that he had not been shot, but rather he produced a performance worthy of an Emmy and got his counterpart in the Italian midfield sent off. This could well effect the outcome of the tie as Barcelona will be playing the remaining hour with a man advantage.
I love watching all sports. Earlier in the year I saw Ian Laperriere, a hockey player for the Philadelphia Flyers, get struck in the face with a slap shot going 90 mph and he didn't act the way Busquets acted. Laperriere had seven teeth knocked out, a broken jaw and a cut requiring 100 stitches from his mishap. He came back to play in that game. And he played the next day. Yes, Laperriere may have a few screws loose, but the fact that he respects his profession and the game itself speaks volumes for the integrity of hockey players in general.
The integrity of soccer players worldwide has been in question for numerous years. I think back to Diego Maradona's "Hand of God" goal against England in the 1986 World Cup. Maradona, one of the greatest soccer players of all time, openly admits to intentionally handling the ball which made its way into the back of the England net and booked Argentina's place in the semi final.
It is time for professional soccer players to respect the game they are fortuitous enough to make a handsome living through. Obviously, the players do not have enough integrity themselves to make the change on their own, so FIFA must step in and do it for them. Cards should be given or rescinded via video replay throughout the match by the fourth official or a team of FIFA official's overseeing the match. As player's will soon find out, their antics will no longer work and they will have to showcase only their God given talent for the world to enjoy. At the moment that seems a big ask, but no doubt it will be better for the game.
PS, would someone let me know who won the game?!